Now the Ebola crisis stabilizes, scientists are concerned about its aftermath. As it usually goes w

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Now the Ebola crisis stabilizes, scientists are concerned about its aftermath. As it usually goes with media hypes it has become very quiet lately around Ebola. But the disease, which was now almost 10,000 deaths, has not been defeated, emphasized some scientists who are closely involved in the fight Monday during a debate. "In Liberia there since February 19 no cases documented," says epidemiologist Neil Ferguson astigmatismo (Imperial College London). "That's astigmatismo encouraging, because the incubation period between astigmatismo the time of infection and the appearance of the first symptoms is usually not longer than three weeks, and patients are only afterwards contagious. But in Sierra Leone and Guinea is certainly much work. We must not let our attention slacken because epidemics astigmatismo are unpredictable, and the road to zero is bumpy. " Now the situation seems somewhat under control and preventive measures to do their work, however, is first gently back and looks ahead. "Except, of course, on beds in treatment centers and personnel training, we have also a strong emphasis on communication, people in the region astigmatismo to urge caution, to explain what was going on and, very importantly, to gain their trust," said Christopher Whitty, scientific advisor to the UK Department astigmatismo for International Development. "What measures have worked best, we can not say with certainty. But all we did was focused on the same goal, which all the rest had to yield: R 0 was down as quickly as possible. astigmatismo " R 0 is a term from the epidemiology, which refers to the so-called reproduction number is how many others a sick average infected if everyone in the population is susceptible to infection. If the number is less than 1, then the epidemic goes off automatically. "But astigmatismo in this case, the number was at the beginning of the epidemic, somewhere between 1.5 and 2, 'says Whitty. "That is, given the length of the incubation period, say that the amount astigmatismo of sick doubles about every month, and that with each day lost a completely uncontrollable situation is getting closer. Difficult, astigmatismo because the training of new personnel and the establishment of treatment course takes time. And that was not there. " The training of new staff can not skimp you for ethical reasons, emphasizes Whitty, because those people are risking their lives especially in this epidemic. But by focusing on R 0 had to districts other things, he admits, such as malaria prevention. The already very limited facilities for public health in the region, still weakened by the significant mortality among health professionals, could just not all at once. The fear that such side effects of the Ebola crisis will make more dead already, MSF recently decide to disperse in the Liberian capital Monrovia malaria drugs, which also helps to avoid feverish people astigmatismo without ebola would overload the treatment. In the journal Science, scientists warn today for another danger that often shows up in the tail of another crisis: the measles. As an epidemic astigmatismo took in the years unstable DRC between 2010 and 2013 the lives of more than 5,000 people, mostly children. The researchers, led by epidemiologist Justin Lessler astigmatismo (Johns Hopkins University, USA), estimate that an outbreak of measles after eighteen months astigmatismo Ebola crisis astigmatismo (we are not yet, but almost) can make 12,000 fatalities, 5,000 more than before astigmatismo the Ebola crisis was the case. (It would, given the uncertainty, may also be three times as much, but that is really in the worst case, and therefore unlikely.) The scientists argue therefore for the vaccination astigmatismo of young children not only as soon as possible resume, but also to make an extra effort - that existed in all the countries in question does all the Ebola crisis plan - to increase vaccination coverage. Good plan, but how can the experts in the current astigmatismo chaos spot now estimate how many children have been vaccinated, astigmatismo and how many would die in a measles epidemic, while even Ebola barely data are available? "The scientists involved have been active in research on measles in Africa," says epidemiologist Hans Hee